CAVA stock (NYSE: CAVA) has become the poster child for what happens when growth darlings stumble. Trading near an alarming 52-week low of $54.90, a staggering 68% plunge from its $172.43 high.
The plunge came as the Mediterranean fast-casual chain now faces a critical question: is this a healthy pullback offering a buying opportunity, or a warning signal that the market may have finally repriced a once-beloved franchise?
The reality is more nuanced. Despite the company’s cult-like brand following and aggressive expansion pace (growing to over 400 restaurants), sentiment has decisively shifted as same-store sales decelerated.
Moreover, macro uncertainty pushed up the cost pressures, and investors abandoned high-growth restaurant stocks.
CAVA stock: What’s behind the slide?
The latest slump in CAVA stock didn’t just happen overnight as it started with a clear slowdown in how its restaurants were actually performing.
For four straight quarters, the Mediterranean chain had been on fire, posting double-digit comparable-store sales growth.
But then came Q2 2025, reported on August 12, and the numbers were a gut punch.
Comps rose just 2.1%, way below the 6.5% analysts were hoping for.
Even more worrying, customer traffic, once CAVA’s biggest strength, basically flatlined compared to last year. That was the first real sign something had changed in the way diners were behaving.
So what went wrong? There isn’t just one reason. CFO Tricia Tolivar put it bluntly: consumers are “navigating a fog,” unsure of where the economy is headed or how much they can really spend.
June saw a clear dip in same-store sales, and by September, the softness hadn’t gone away. In fact, traffic across the entire fast-casual segment was slowing, suggesting the pressure wasn’t just on CAVA; the whole category was feeling the pinch.
On the cost side, CAVA faces a classic squeeze: rising food and labor costs are compressing restaurant-level margins, even as the company has historically held pricing discipline to avoid alienating price-sensitive consumers.
What analysts say: Should you buy the dip?
Wall Street has delivered a decidedly mixed report card.
While a consensus rating of ‘Buy’ persists with an average price target of $91.94, suggesting 48% upside, the trend is unmistakably bearish, and the rating masks growing debate about execution and macro resilience.
Bank of America Securities is still holding the bullish line as analysts reiterated their ‘Buy’ rating and a $92 price target, saying the long-term growth story for the Mediterranean fast-casual space remains intact.
They noted that the category itself still has plenty of room to run, even if the near-term turbulence looks messy.
But that optimism isn’t exactly universal.
Over at Barclays, the tone has turned much more cautious.
The firm cut its price target from $74 to $64 and kept an ‘Equal-Weight’ rating, flagging what it called “choppy” comparable-store trends in the quarter.
Analysts there pointed out that food inflation flared up for certain ingredients, forcing some restaurants to lean back on price hikes, even as customer traffic stayed soft.
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