As Rachel Reeves – the UK’s finance minister – prepares to deliver her Autumn Budget, investors are bracing for potential tax hikes, spending cuts, or a mix of both.
While the mood is cautious at best, some fund managers see contrarian opportunities.
John White, founder of Calibrate Partners, for example, argues a bet on the UK housing market is the most straightforward way to benefit from the budget expected on Wednesday, November 26.
Why housing stocks may benefit from the UK budget
UK’s housing market has been sluggish, with transaction volumes and new builds at historic lows.
According to John White, stamp duty remains the biggest obstacle to activity – and that’s the very lever he expects Reeves to pull to stimulate growth.
Cutting the tax on property purchases, he’s convinced, will have a multiplier effect on the broader economy, boosting jobs and consumer demand.
White estimates the impact could be between 3.5 and 4 times the initial stimulus.
In short, he believes a sharp reduction in stamp duty could reignite property transactions, which, combined with lower inflation and the possibility of BOE rate cuts in the coming months, could bring renewed momentum to the UK housing stocks heading into 2026.
Howden stock: White’s top pick in UK housing names
Among UK housing stocks, White singles out Howden Joinery Group (LON: HWDN) as the most compelling bet.
Presenting at the Sohn London conference, he described the FTSE 100-listed kitchen supplier as “exceptionally well-run” with a dominant market share of roughly one-third.
HWDN has expanded beyond kitchens into wardrobes and other joinery categories – positioning itself to benefit from a broad housing recovery.
White emphasised that Howden’s management is aligned with shareholders and that consensus earnings forecasts underestimate its potential.
Calibrate Partners has set a £13 price objective on HWDN shares, implying a 60% upside over the next year.
“It fits massively into our top-down view of an accelerating housing market,” White told attendees.
A healthy 2.55% dividend yield was among other reasons he cited for the bullish call on Howden stock.
A contrarian opportunity amid budget uncertainty
While many investors are focused on the risks of Reeves’ autumn budget, White’s thesis highlights how policy shifts can unlock sector-specific opportunities.
A stamp duty cut, paired with easing inflation and lower interest rates, could breathe new life into housing activity and drive demand for housing stocks like Howden.
For contrarian investors, the pessimism surrounding the UK economy may actually mask attractive entry points.
As White put it, the housing market is “on its knees,” but with the right policy lever, it could rebound sharply.
For those willing to look past the gloom, Howden Joinery Group Plc offers a simple, targeted way to position for upside heading into 2026.
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