Toncoin (TON) is currently trading at $2.81 with a 2.14% gain over the past 24 hours, but remains under firm selling pressure after a prolonged downtrend stretching over 390 days.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Despite a market capitalisation of $6.96 billion and 24-hour trading volume of $140.32 million, TON has failed to break out of its descending structure.
The token’s inability to recover above the $3 mark reflects broader concerns around investor confidence and network utility, even as technical indicators suggest a possible reversal pattern is forming.
Selling pressure intensifies after multi-month slide
TON has shed over 65% of its value from its 2024 high of $8.33, with its last major bullish run recorded in March 2025 when the token climbed from $2.44 to $4.20.
Since then, the bears have largely dictated market direction.
As of early July, Toncoin continues to trade below its 200-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), both of which are reinforcing its current bearish structure.
The recent uptick in trading volume has not translated into upward price action.
Instead, TON is consolidating within a tight range between $2.70 and $2.88, with neither bulls nor bears showing clear dominance.
The token has failed to close above $2.88 since mid-June, with each attempted breakout met with immediate rejection.
Technical indicators hint at a possible reversal
On the daily time frame, TON’s price movement resembles a descending triangle pattern—a structure often associated with eventual breakouts if bullish momentum builds.
However, the current technical indicators remain neutral, with no major divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or confirmation from momentum-based indicators.
For buyers to regain control, TON needs to breach the $2.88 resistance level convincingly.
A close above this threshold could spark a short-term rally toward the $5 mark, especially if accompanied by higher volumes. Failing that, continued sideways movement is likely in the near term.
Visa controversy still weighs on investor sentiment
While the current market action is largely technical, TON continues to grapple with lingering scepticism following earlier controversy around false claims of residency eligibility in the UAE through crypto investments.
The Toncoin Foundation later clarified that the programme was managed by a third-party partner without direct involvement from UAE authorities, but the damage to investor sentiment had already been done.
Although the coin avoided a collapse following that episode, it failed to reclaim lost ground, suggesting deeper trust issues in the community.
Market participants have since become more cautious, and the latest price action suggests that the token is still trying to rebuild momentum.
Fresh catalyst needed to break the bearish cycle
Despite the token’s strong fundamentals on paper, including integration with Telegram’s ecosystem and ambitions in blockchain messaging, TON has yet to see a major catalyst that could trigger renewed buying interest.
The lack of substantial development updates or new partnerships since Q1 2025 has added to the subdued sentiment.
Unless the Toncoin Foundation introduces meaningful upgrades or utility-focused milestones, the path to a sustained recovery remains uncertain.
Any upside from the descending triangle setup would likely be short-lived unless supported by stronger fundamentals and clearer investor messaging.
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