Tesla stock was mostly flat on Wednesday, the final trading day of 2025, capping a turbulent year marked by sharp swings in sentiment, record highs, and growing unease around the company’s core electric-vehicle business.
The stock recently notched an all-time closing high of $489.88, but the path to that level was far from smooth.
Tesla shares slumped earlier in the year amid intensifying competition, particularly from Chinese electric-vehicle manufacturers, as well as reputational fallout linked to CEO Elon Musk’s political rhetoric.
Despite the late-year rally, investors have turned cautious again heading into the company’s next key catalyst: quarterly delivery data.
Delivery expectations slide into year-end
Markets are bracing for a decline when Tesla reports its vehicle deliveries, with estimates steadily drifting lower in recent weeks.
The company-compiled consensus of 20 brokers forecasts deliveries of 422,850 vehicles.
By comparison, the FactSet consensus stands at roughly 440,000 vehicles, down from about 460,000 just a few weeks ago.
More recent analyst estimates have fallen closer to 415,000 units.
For context, Tesla delivered around 497,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025 and approximately 496,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The anticipated drop highlights how dramatically demand conditions have shifted over the past several months.
A major driver of the slowdown has been the expiration of the federal electric-vehicle purchase tax credit, which was worth up to $7,500 and ended in late September.
The policy change made EVs more expensive overnight and pulled forward demand into the third quarter.
Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries of 497,099 vehicles marked a company record, but also set the stage for a weaker finish to the year.
Will the slow sales hurt the Tesla stock
Expected delivery declines, combined with recent trading patterns, have made investor reactions difficult to predict.
Coming into Wednesday’s session, Tesla shares had fallen for five consecutive days, shedding roughly 7% over that stretch.
Despite the pullback, the stock remains near record territory, reflecting investor optimism around Tesla’s longer-term ambitions, particularly in autonomous driving and robotaxis.
Still, the Cybertruck maker’s core EV business has struggled in 2025, even as its share price surged earlier this month.
Tesla was hit hard by the collapse in US electric-car sales following the expiration of the tax credit.
The slowdown is not confined to the American market.
Outside the US, Tesla faces fierce competition in China, where numerous local EV startups are offering high-tech vehicles at significantly lower prices.
In Europe, Tesla’s sales have fallen nearly 30% so far this year, amid consumer backlash tied to Musk’s political interventions.
The slump has left Tesla racing to avoid its second consecutive annual decline in global vehicle sales.
While the company has introduced incentives in the US and is pushing to expand its Full Self-Driving technology in China and Europe, delivery estimates suggest Tesla may end 2025 having sold more than 100,000 fewer vehicles than in 2024.
Michael Burry weighs in on valuation
Adding to the debate, renowned investor Michael Burry on Wednesday denied that he is short Tesla’s shares, despite calling the stock “ridiculously overvalued.”
In a post on X, the Scion Asset Management founder responded to a user asking whether he would bet against Tesla by saying, “I am not short.”
Burry, best known for predicting the US housing collapse ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, has recently attracted attention for short bets against parts of the technology sector, arguing that some large companies are using aggressive accounting to inflate profits tied to the artificial intelligence boom.
As Tesla heads into 2026, investors remain caught between near-term delivery concerns and long-term hopes tied to autonomy, leaving the stock perched at elevated levels but facing mounting scrutiny.
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