Crude oil price is set for a weekly loss as Brent remains close to the one-week low it hit on Thursday. In addition to the persistent economic uncertainties, oversupply concerns are fueling the selling pressure. As a result, the bulls appear keen on finding a steady trading range as they lack enough momentum to yield a trend reversal in the short term.
The market is now keen on the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday for clarity over the group’s next move. The decision to further unwind their voluntary output cuts may yield an oil price selloff.
Oversupply concerns reverse oil price gains
Crude oil price remains under selling pressure amid concerns over increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers. To begin with, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) is expected to consider a further surge in production during their meeting on Sunday. The market would interpret a production hike as a sign that the group is more keen on its market share than supporting oil prices.
The member countries have already agreed to raise production by a total of 2.2 million bpd for the period between April and September. This is in addition to the UAE’s quota increase of 300,000 bpd.
The OPEC+ unwinding, coupled with the surge in US oil production, has heightened the risk of a crude oil sell-off. According to EIA, output in this non-OPEC oil producer hit a fresh all-time high in June 2025 at $13.58 million bpd. This marks a 50,000 bpd increase from the previous high hit in October 2024 and the pre-COVID peak of $582,000 bpd.
Amid these concerns, bulls in the crude oil market are finding some comfort in the easing growth of the US oil industry. In fact, Standard Chartered expects the country’s output to peak in Q1’26 at 14.34 million bpd.
Brent crude oil price technical analysis
Brent crude oil price has remained below the bullish trend line that shaped its movements between early June and early August. Notably, it is back in consolidation mode after momentarily rising past the tight range earlier in the week.
A look at its daily chart shows the global oil benchmark trading below the short-term 25-day EMA and medium-term 50-day EMA. However, it has held steady above the strong support level of $65.90.
In the short term, the range between $65.90 and $68.06 is still worth watching. Further rebounding will likely curb the gains at the upper resistance level of $69.64. A trend reversal will require the bulls to gain enough momentum to bolster crude oil price back above the months-long bullish channel. On the flip side, failure for the prices to stabilize at the current support zone may give the bears a chance to pull Brent oil lower towards May’s levels of $64.50.
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