Reflections and stock-taking are usually a part of the end-of-year celebrations. For investors in the crude oil market, 2025 has been a rather underwhelming year.
Brent oil price began the year on its front foot, rallying to a six-month high within the first two weeks at $82.66. It has since plunged by over 25% to trade at $61.76 as at the time of writing. As the market participants prepare for the next year, the expected supply glut and weaker demand outlook are set to take center stage in ensuing analyses.
Crude oil price analysis for 2026
Crude oil price has been on a downtrend in recent months, and is expected to continue with this downbeat mood into the new year. Indeed, concerns over this market imbalance have driven prices down by about 20% ytd.
According to IEA, supply will exceed demand in 2026 by close to 4 million bpd, which equates to 4% of the global oil demand. However, as the year progresses, the market may find some balance.
To start with, OPEC+ may pause on further output increases as it strives to bolster crude oil prices while controlling a higher market share. Besides, while the Russia-Ukraine peace talks appear to have made some progress, the tensions are still far from over. As such, the persistent geopolitical risks will likely continue to support oil prices in the coming year.
Further supporting crude oil demand is the robust industrial activity in China; the leading importer of the commodity. On the one hand, its struggling real estate sector and sluggish domestic consumer demand have been weighing on the global demand outlook. However, its vibrant industrial sector and the expected government stimulus are set to improve the situation.
Nonetheless, this optimism resides side by side with the admissible negativity. For instance, there are persistent concerns over the US labor market. In the nonfarm payrolls data due for release early next year, signs of weakness may further impact the oil demand outlook.
Brent crude oil price technical analysis
Crude oil price chart | Source: TradingView
As 2025 comes to an end, crude oil price has held steady within the bearish trading channel that has shaped its movements for about 5 months now. Two weeks ago, it extended its losses to a level last recorded on 5th May at $58.71. While it has since rebounded by about 5%, buyers largely remain on the sidelines. As such, it has lacked enough bullish momentum to break the crucial support-turn-resistance zone of $62.
A look at its daily chart signals the continuation of the downtrend, at least in the short term. At its current RSI of 49, Brent oil price will likely trade within a tight range in the ensuing sessions. Besides, it is finding resistance along the short-term 25-day EMA while trading below the medium-term EMA.
Based on both the technical indicators and fundamentals, the range between the 50-day MA at $62.75 and the support at $60.65 will be worth watching. With further rebounding, Brent crude oil price will likely find resistance at $63.80. On the lower side, a pullback past the current trading range may have the sellers retesting the crucial level of $60.
READ MORE: Oil prices in 2026: Oversupply looms as OPEC+ struggles to defend prices
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