US natural gas prices have been on an uptrend since earlier in the week as meteorologists warn of an incoming winter storm. Indeed, most parts of the country are already experiencing lower-than-normal temperatures. In the ensuing sessions, weather predictions and inventories will influence the price movements.
US natural gas prices retest three-year high
Natural gas price has been subject to heightened volatility as weather changes impact the demand outlook during the ongoing winter season. In the past week, the benchmark Henry Hub futures dropped to a three-month low as warmer temperatures in most parts of the US eased the heating demand.
However, the oncoming winter storm is reversing the bearish trend that saw the US natural gas price plunge by about 45% since 5th December 2025 when it hit a three-year high. In the past two sessions, it has erased some of those losses by rallying by about 56%.
This rebound is set to continue in the near term as the cold Arctic air masses sweep across the eastern US. According to the National Weather Service, a huge winter storm is expected to cause heavy snow and freezing rain in the Plains and southern Rockies. It will then head towards the East Coast as the weekend approaches.
Already, most parts of the US are experiencing lower-than-normal temperatures in the current week. Subsequently, the ensuing EIA weekly natural gas storage report may further bolster prices.
In its latest report, the agency indicated that inventories decreased by 71 Bcf for the week that ended on 9th January compared to the previous week. However, the amount in storage was 33 Bcf higher than a similar period in 2025.
Even with the recorded gains, volatility is set to remain high in the short term. With weather being a key driver of natural gas prices, signs of warmer temperatures into February may ease the recorded spike.
US natural gas price technical analysis
Henry Hub futures have recorded gains for three consecutive sessions in reaction to the extreme weather forecast. Notably, it gas rallied by about 60% to trade at the 3-year high reached early in December 2025 at $5.50 per million British thermal units before pulling back. At the time of writing, the benchmark for US natural gas price was at $5.41.
A look at its daily chart shows that the asset has entered the overbought territory at an RSI of 71. In the near term, it is set to remain on an uptrend as more buyers seek exposure. The bullish trend has been further consolidated by the positioning of the short and medium-term EMAs.
After forming the bearish death cross pattern earlier in the month, the indicators are on the verge of consolidating near $4.00 to allow the short-term 25-day MA cross the medium-term 50-day EMA to the upside. Nonetheless, a corrective pullback is likely.
Based on both the fundamentals and technicals, the bulls are keen on attracting more buyers to break the current resistance at $5.50. If successful, the next target will be at a fresh 3-year high of $5.67.
On the flip side, a healthy pullback will likely activate the crucial support level of $5.00. Even then, the bulls will be in control as the US natural gas price continues to trade above the short and medium-term EMAs.
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