US stocks are holding near flat as Wall Street awaits the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of 2025.
The S&P 500 is essentially unchanged, while the Nasdaq edged up modestly and the Dow slipped on weakness in JPMorgan Chase after the bank issued sobering expense guidance for 2026.
Traders are pricing in an 87-88% probability of a quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday, but the real market mover may be what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says about future easing.
Ahead of the Fed decision, Tuesday’s JOLTS report revealed a sharp drop in hires that’s muddying the inflation-versus-growth calculus.
US stocks at a glance: Positioning before the Fed
The S&P 500 is trading in a narrow range near 6,840–6,860, up roughly 17% year to date, even after recent profit-taking.
The Nasdaq is holding steady while financials bear the brunt of selling pressure.
JPMorgan’s shares fell sharply after CCB CEO Marianne Lake warned that the bank expects 2026 expenses of $105 billion, roughly 9% above analyst estimates.
Lake cited higher volume-related costs, strategic investments, and “the structural consequence of inflation” as drivers, a warning that may reverberate across the banking sector ahead of Q4 earnings season.
Volatility has ticked higher as traders hedge ahead of the Fed announcement.
The VIX, the market’s fear gauge, has climbed as demand for downside protection rises. Meanwhile, rate-sensitive sectors like utilities and consumer staples are bid, reflecting safe-haven positioning.
But the broader mood is cautious rather than panicked; this is classic consolidation before a major policy event.
Why labour market softness may give cover for a cut?
The October JOLTS report, released Tuesday, delivered mixed signals that complicate the Fed’s inflation-versus-growth juggling act.
Job openings held steady at 7.7 million, but hires plunged to 5.1 million, down from elevated levels in prior months.
The quits rate fell to 2.9 million, the lowest since August 2020, signaling that workers are less confident about finding better opportunities.
This combination of falling hires and quits suggests labor market momentum is slowing.
While job openings remain elevated, employers are apparently struggling to fill positions or choosing to hold hiring steady.
That cooling may give the Fed political cover for a rate cut by suggesting the economy needs support.
However, persistent job openings also hint that wage pressure could remain sticky, complicating the inflation picture.
Wednesday’s 2 PM ET announcement and Powell’s press conference will set the tone for year-end trading. If the Fed cuts as expected but sounds hawkish on 2026, expect volatility to spike and growth stocks to stumble.
A dovish surprise could reignite the rally toward 2025 highs. Until then, traders are in a wait-and-see mode.
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