Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) has been under intense scrutiny this year for being an AI laggard – and for good reason, too – some would argue.
However, a recent report suggests it remains strong as ever at its core business: the iPhone.
According to Counterpoint Research, iPhone shipments are on track to beat Samsung in 2025 – a seismic shift the world hasn’t witnessed for 14 years straight.
Despite the AI-related criticism, Apple stock is currently up over 60% versus its year-to-date low.
Significance of iPhone shipments for Apple stock
Apple will ship about 243 million iPhones this year, handily above the 235 million shipments expected from Samsung.
The multinational will end 2025 with an exciting 19.4% share of the global smartphone market on the back of robust demand for its recently launched iPhone 17 line-up.
In comparison, Samsung’s share will be capped at 18.7% only.
Other than the iPhone 17 demand, a key driver behind Apple’s shipment strength is the replacement cycle reaching an inflection point.
“Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” the Counterpoint report added.
And this upgrade cycle could translate to further upside for AAPL shares in 2026.
JPMorgan sees significant further upside in AAPL shares
According to Samik Chatterjee, a senior JPMorgan analyst, the iPhone’s strength alone is a strong enough reason for long-term investors to stick with Apple shares at current levels.
Chatterjee maintains an “overweight” rating on the Nasdaq-listed firm, with a $305 price objective indicating potential “upside” of another 10% from here.
In his research note, the JPM analyst told clients that supply continues to trail the overall consumer interest in the iPhone 17 – which, of course, is a bullish sign for the company’s top-line growth in 2026.
The iPhone 17 has already pushed AAPL into the top 4 smartphone vendors in India, But Navkendar Singh, the vice president of IDC India, believes it still has significant room to grow in that market.
And considering the sheer size of the Indian mobile phone market, Singh’s comment makes up for another great reason to own AAPL stock heading into the new year.
Apple’s technicals warrant long-term ownership as well
From a technical perspective as well, Apple shares are currently in a strong uptrend, according to Oppenheimer’s technical strategist, Ari Wald.
It’s trading handily above all of its major moving averages (50-day, 100-day, 200-day), indicating bulls will likely remain in control for the next 12 months.
More importantly, AAPL stock’s relative strength index (100-day) currently sits at less than 60 – suggesting the upward momentum is far from exhaustion as well.
The Counterpoint report noted that “users are likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years,” a trend that, combined with Apple’s 0.37% dividend yield and the $100 billion stock buyback program announced in May, adds further support to the investment case for the company.
Apple also does not appear stretched on valuation. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio sits below 34, a level investors view as reasonable given the potential uplift from AI-related demand, even as the company trails peers in rolling out those capabilities.
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