Embraer shares were up 5.29% to R$81.08 on Tuesday. The stock’s performance followed the announcement that Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) has signed a order for 45 E195-E2 jets, with the option to acquire 10 more, bringing the total potential order to 55.
According to local media outlet InfoMoney, Embraer shares rose substantially after the firm announced a significant commercial aviation agreement with Scandinavian Airlines (SAS). At 10:59 a.m. Brasília time.
Deal boosts backlog and market outlook
The firm half of the order is valued by JPMorgan at roughly US$3.8 billion based on a list price of US$84.1 million per plane.
The total contract value may reach US$4.6 billion if all options are exercised.
This transaction also adds 12% to Embraer’s consolidated backlog, bringing it to US$34.5 billion as of the end of the 2025 Paris Air Show, after second-quarter deliveries.
Adding the 10 options brings that backlog to US$36.6 billion—14% higher than post-PAS levels. The delivery of the order, however, will start from 2028 onward as per Embraer’s information on the delivery schedule.
The announcement is nonetheless seen as a strong statement of confidence in demand for the Embraer E2 family of jets, which had seen a string of recent orders more heavily for existing E1 variants.
Book-to-bill ratio boosts sales momentum
The SAS deal increases Embraer’s 2025 book-to-bill ratio—a key industry indicator that compares new orders to deliveries—to between 1.41 and 1.56 times.
This range is based on 120 firm orders obtained so far this year and estimated deliveries through 2025. The measure implies strong sales momentum and a growing backlog, which reinforces Embraer’s market position.
JPMorgan emphasised the importance of the transaction, describing it as a crucial element in confirming its buy recommendation on Embraer with a target price of R$93.
Embraer is now priced at 9.1 times EV/EBITDA for 2026, which is lower than rivals like Boeing (22.8x), Airbus (11.1x), and Bombardier (8.2x).
Analysts maintain a positive outlook
Bradesco BBI approved of the deal as well, keeping an outperform rating on Embraer with a target of US$60.00 on the company’s New York-traded ADR (ERJ).
The firm order figure alone accounts for 15% of the backlog reported in Q1 2025, according to the bank, while the total value (if options are exercised) is equal to 18%.
Bradesco BBI says the transaction could generate around US$1.60 in net present value per share, roughly 3% over ERJ’s last closing price.
Most importantly, the deal confirms potential interest in the latest E2 jets, which goes a long way in allaying earlier concerns that Embraer’s commercial success was too concentrated on the ageing aircraft.
The bank also highlighted the steadfastness of the firm’s defence and executive jet segments, buoyed by firm demand for models including the KC-390, A-29 Super Tucano, and executive jets.
Execution challenges remain
Despite the solid order book, analysts at BTG Pactual believe the market’s focus will gradually move to Embraer’s ability to execute on its expanding pipeline.
Persistent supply chain constraints, particularly in engine production, may hinder short-term execution.
Preliminary data suggests that second-quarter deliveries may be slightly lower than last year’s levels, with the corporation set to reveal official results soon.
BTG forecasts Embraer’s commercial aviation performance to peak in the second half of 2025, with a clearer normalisation of production beginning in 2026.
BTG reiterated its buy recommendation and target price of R$94 for EMBR3, highlighting the company’s strong order momentum and long-term prospects despite short-term logistical hurdles.
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